Political analyst Kurt Bassuener, founder of the founder of Democratization Policy Council (DPC), spoke to N1 about the impact of Donald Trump’s policies during his second term as US president, which has already seen a series of unexpected decisions. He stated that Bosnia and Herzegovina, in its current state, would never be able to join the European Union or NATO. However, he noted that while Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska (RS) entity, failed in his first attempt to have US sanctions against him lifted, that did not mean he would not try again.

Bassuener recalled that during Trump's first term, he had described the American political landscape as resembling the standard Balkan political system, where societal consensus is gained through fear and patronage. He now believes that Trump could be even more dangerous in his second term. Reflecting on Trump’s first days back in office, Bassuener remarked that the speed at which changes were occurring had exceeded his expectations. He emphasized that the level of disruption in the United States had been extreme, particularly for those who had relied on or tried to predict US policies. He argued that the credibility of the US as an international actor had likely suffered permanent damage, pointing out that this credibility had already been significantly harmed in Trump’s first term. He cited numerous examples, including territorial expansionism and Trump’s openly adversarial inaugural address toward American allies, suggesting that the world had entered a new and uncertain phase.

Regarding Trump’s influence in Bosnia and the region, Bassuener observed that those celebrating Trump’s reelection in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Balkans likely believed they had something to gain from his administration. He pointed to what he saw as continuity in U.S. policy toward the Balkans between Trump and his predecessor, Joe Biden, a continuity that he and his colleagues had found frustrating. He had expected a reevaluation of policies toward Bosnia and Serbia, particularly given the focus on those countries due to recent political developments. However, he noted that the only official statement from the US administration since the inauguration had been from Richard Grenell, regarding protests in Serbia, and a comment from State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce condemning efforts to undermine peace in the Western Balkans.

Bassuener remarked that individuals seeking the removal of US sanctions, such as Milorad Dodik, would persist in their efforts. He believed that Dodik and his allies would present themselves as conservatives, in a strategy reminiscent of Viktor Orbán’s rhetoric. While Dodik had not succeeded in his previous attempt to have the sanctions lifted, Bassuener considered it entirely possible that he might succeed this time. If he were in Dodik’s position, he admitted, he would also attempt to reverse the sanctions.

Discussing the latest sanctions imposed on Dodik and his associates, Bassuener admitted that he struggled to understand the rationale behind certain U.S. actions. He noted that a recent statement from the State Department had reiterated sanctions against Dodik’s financial enablers, despite the last round of sanctions having been announced earlier in January. He found it puzzling and pointed out that the executive order issued on January 8 allowed for the broad application of sanctions across the Western Balkans’ political leadership. He expressed his view that such measures could be implemented on a wider scale, and he would welcome a broader application. However, he doubted that this would happen, despite sanctions being a significant tool available to any administration. While he acknowledged that the executive order provided a key policy instrument, he questioned whether it would be fully utilized.

Assessing the effectiveness of past sanctions on Dodik and his inner circle, Bassuener asserted that they had certainly created difficulties for Dodik and his allies, but they had been used more as a symbolic warning rather than a means to enforce lasting political change. He argued that sanctions had been applied in a way that sent messages rather than ensuring accountability. He pointed to a broader transatlantic approach to the Balkans, which he viewed as a cynical strategy where regional leaders were treated as entities to be managed rather than as part of a meaningful policy effort. He criticized this mindset, noting that while resistance had emerged in Serbia, with students actively protesting, Western policies continued to operate under a transactional logic. He concluded that sanctions alone had not led to any real transformation in Bosnia’s political landscape. He advocated for stronger measures, particularly in the security domain, such as deploying EUFOR troops to Brcko to counter secessionist rhetoric and stabilize the situation. Only then, he argued, could discussions begin about how Bosnia’s citizens wanted their country to function, given the lack of credibility among domestic political leaders.

Bassuener also addressed the recent breakup between the Troika coalition and Dodik’s SNSD in Bosnia’s state government. He viewed Dodik’s removal from power as a positive development but expressed scepticism that this would lead to significant progress toward a government that genuinely inspired public trust. He described Bosnia’s political system as deeply entrenched in structural and constitutional issues, emphasizing that external actors could only help create a more favourable environment rather than directly resolve these problems.

Finally, Bassuener addressed Bosnia’s European aspirations. He did not believe that a genuine opportunity for EU accession had been lost in the way some had suggested. However, he noted broader implications for the region, particularly regarding EUFOR and Europe’s potential role in the Western Balkans. He argued that the Western Balkans was the only region where Europe could assert itself as a decisive factor, given that the ongoing war in Ukraine had made direct European influence there far more complicated. He asserted that Trump’s administration had placed Europe in a difficult position and concluded that Bosnia, in its current state, had no realistic prospect of joining either the EU or NATO. The analyst acknowledged that NATO provided security guarantees, but he deemed them inadequate. As for EU membership, he stated that Bosnia’s only chance lay in establishing a functional, accountable government based on the rule of law, something he did not see materializing under current conditions.