Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing a dramatic population decline and if the current trends continue in less than 50 years there will be just over a million and a half people living in the country, according to the analysis published on Thursday by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA)'s Sarajevo office.

The analysis carried out by the Czech and Bosnian economic and demographic experts under the auspices of the UNFPA, said that since the last census in 2013, the country has been losing an average of 25,000 inhabitants per year who go to live and work abroad.

“The forecast results indicate that the total number of inhabitants of Bosnia and Herzegovina will likely decline almost linearly in the next five decades. Assuming the population of the country amounted to 3.47 million persons at the end of the year 2020, then its total number should reach the mark of about 1.56 million within a realistic range defined by 1.27 and 1.81 million inhabitants by 2070,” according to the document.

With the current trend of decreasing population in BiH, the share of children decreased from 22.4 to 19.3 percent, and the share of elderly people increased from 14.0 to 17.2 percent.

All the expected changes represent a drop in the total number of inhabitants of BiH by about 55 percent by 2070, and the projection is that the number of young people will fall even faster than the decline in the total number of inhabitants, which will decrease by 33 to 45 thousand every year in the next half century.

What causes the greatest concern is the estimate that the reduction of the total population will be accompanied by a dramatic continuation of population aging. Thus, it is expected that in 2070, the median age of the population will increase from the current 42 years to approximately 54 years. The female population of Bosnia and Herzegovina should then be about 56 years old on average, and the male population about four years younger.

Ultimately, this means that in 2070 there will be only about 680,000 productive-age residents in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The number of children and adolescents up to the age of 19 is likely to decrease from 669 thousand in 2020 to about 350 thousand after the first 30 years and to approximately 230 thousand at the end of the forecast period. In the next 30 years, the contingent of elderly people should increase from slightly less than 600 thousand people in 2020 to over 820 thousand people aged 65 and over, according to the analysis.

Almost a quarter of BiH's population will be over 85 years old in 2070.

All of this will have enormous consequences for the economic stability and sustainability of the country, as there will be less and less income, and rising costs for pension payments and health care.

The UNPFA called on the Bosnian authorities to immediately revise existing development policies and strategies at all levels and include population analysis and demographic measures in every aspect of human development.