The Balkans will be embroiled in another conflict if the great powers want it that way, military and political analyst, Neven Kazazovic, told N1.

Kazazovic spoke about the US Congress approval of the National Defence Authorization Act, which includes a section solely dedicated to the Western Balkans, calling for increased “military-to-military cooperation and engagements” in the region.  

He said that section reminded him of a statement by a NATO general from some 15 years ago, made during the reform of Bosnia’s armed forces.  

“At the time, a NATO general said something that still echoes in my mind, which is, ‘we have invested too much into Bosnia and Herzegovina for us to leave it to others’,” Kazazovic said.  

But a lot of time has passed since then, and a lot of things happened, he said.  

“Some things happened that did not benefit the Americans or us,” he said, exemplifying this with the unsuccessful April Package of 2006 – a set of constitutional reforms Bosnia’s Parliament failed to ratify.  

“Since then, the US side has been, I don’t want to say reserved, but mild towards Bosnia,” he said, implying that from that point onward, the US started to shift its interest away from the country.  

But this is beginning to change, the analyst said.  

“Several renown analysts and institutes in Bosnia pointed out what (the US) leaving Bosnia would produce. There is serious ongoing discussion in the US Congress and we could say that the situation is changing,” he said.  

The US never fully left the Balkans, according to Kazazovic.  

“The largest US base in the Balkans is the Bondsteel base in Kosovo. There is a small part of their forces present in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia and Bosnia are surrounded by NATO members,” he said, adding that “the situation is not as complicated as it seems”.  

Kazazovic also spoke about Russia’s influence in the Balkans, saying Russia's interest is to “muddy the waters” wherever they can.  

“The developments in Bosnia must be connected to the developments in Ukraine. Ukraine remains a big problem for the US and NATO. If Russia manages to cause problems in the Balkans, they will also manage to do so in Ukraine,” he said.  

“There are media spins, and one of them is that the Russians are very interested in building a large military base in Zaluzani near Banjaluka. The West would never allow for this to happen. But, even spins cause a reaction,” he said.  

Apart from Russian influence, the analyst also spoke about the role of NATO in the region.  

“US troops come here as US troops, but also as NATO troops. We also have the troops of the European Union, whose units are part of NATO. We cannot say that NATO is disinterested,” he said.  

“They are now announcing a military exercise to take place in Manjaca and Serbia. They are interested in implementing their politics up to the last consequences,” he said, explaining that, as opposed to Balkan leaders, great world powers think about the long run.  

“We have a situation that worries the common people. Serbia is arming itself. Croatia wants to buy F-16 planes. Those are big bites for small countries to take. I don’t think that this is some kind of preparation for a war or a conflict, as a conflict will happen in the Balkans when the great powers want it to happen,” Kazazovic concluded.