Although he is disappointed with the U.S. policy towards the Balkans and the lack of progress in the countries of the region under Joe Biden, political analyst Kurt Bassuener warned that the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House could lead to a "wholehearted embrace of reversal" of the region. He argued that it is understandable that politicians such as the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, or the President of BiH’s Republika Srpska entity, Milorad Dodik, hope that “their agendas will have more running room, perhaps even support, under a Trump presidency”.
Bassuener, an expert on the Balkans at the Democratization Policy Council (DPC), also pointed out Jared Kushner's investments in Serbia in this context.
However, he believes that the primary reason for the support for Trump in Serbia is that there are “parallels in politics” between Vucic and Trump, but also other politicians in Europe who share certain views, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
When asked how Trump's policy affected the region the last time he was in the White House, Bassuener replied that “it definitely opened the question of borders, which everybody thought had been settled.”
He noted that “this time Trump is a lot better prepared in terms of having a lineup of people to take full advantage of the federal bureaucracy, to implant loyalists in places like the State Department, Defense Department, National Security Establishment, because the current civil service restrictions stood in the way of being able to fully exercise every whim from the White House”.
“In this sense, Trump is very much in line with people like Victor Orban, Bibi Netanyahu, and others who make the claim of this sort of executive – if I've been elected by the people, I should be able to implement my agenda without restraint, regardless of professional civil service, other sorts of things”, he said.
He said that, while he is disappointed in the missed opportunity to rethink the U.S. policy towards the Balkans undr Biden and recalibrate it, Trump’s administration would likely lead to a “wholesale reversal of a lot of standard practice”.
Bassuener said that it is not insignificant that the political leader in Europe with whom Trump has the closest relationship is Viktor Orban in Hungary.
“And it's not just Trump, but the whole right-wing Republican Party under Trump that he's taken over, and that whole ecosystem that views Orban as an avatar of right-thinking policies. And it's not coincidental that Orban is the chief champion of Serbia's bid to become an EU member and chief supporter of Milorad Dodik in Banja Luka”, he said.
He also commented on the recent agreement between Serbia and the EU regarding lithium mining. When asked whether this will soften the criticism of Vucic's regime coming from the EU and the West, Bassuener pointed out that there was not a lot of such criticism in the first place.
He noted that Vucic was criticised for not aligning with the EU's foreign policy, but that there were no real consequences for him.
“For example, the whole circus that Vucic had in the UN General Assembly about a month ago over the Srebrenica resolution that passed. Nobody said anything”, he said.
When asked why this is the case, Bassuener said that he believes that the West considers Vucic “inevitable in the political ecosystem in Serbia.”
“I see this as a cause for concern because essentially the West is investing in the Vucic regime as a partner to deliver the strategic mineral to the German car industry. And of course, there's lithium here in Bosnia too, mostly in Republika Srpska”, he said.
Bassuener also spoke about the financial situation in Republika Srpska, Dodik's secessionist rhetoric and how the West should react to it, as well as the U.S. elections in the context of Biden's withdrawal.
Watch the full interview in English in the video above.
Kakvo je tvoje mišljenje o ovome?
Budi prvi koji će ostaviti komentar!