Sporadic incidents might be a possibility but war will not happen in Bosnia and Herzegovina, political analyst Tanja Topic told N1 commenting on the current political developments in the country.
“War is impossible, although we are exposed to a verbal war. I'm afraid that this verbal war caused mental damage on the citizens,” said Topic.
Speaking about the latest statements by Serb member of Bosnia's tripartite Presidency Milorad Dodik, who announced a possibility of Republika Srpska, Bosnia's Serb-majority region, withdrawing from the state-level institutions, Topic said Dodik is heating up the situation and testing the limits.
“I think he is not even sure about what he wants,” she said, adding that Dodik might appear in an hour with another “fantastic” idea.
Asked if he is blackmailing the international community, the analyst replied that the Serb leader has been for years blackmailing and threatening not only them but also the local actors.
“Even he is confused by the calmness of the international community,” according to Topic.
As for possible outcomes of the situation, Topic said she would not be surprised if Dodik gives up on all the plans he has been announcing.
“That would actually not be anything new. A question bothering a greater part of the public is: whose support he enjoys,” she noted, reminding that Dodik mentioned the support of seven European Union member states for Republika Srpska's potential independence, without specifying which countries those are.
“It is a question who among the local actors support this insane policy of playing with fire. I must say that the SNSD (Dodik's party), as the strongest political party in the (RS) entity, speaking from the point of the election results, has support of some 20 percent of population. You cannot act on behalf of majority of the Republika Srpska citizens,” she underlined.
Commenting on the meeting that Dodik and Republika Srpska leadership held with the foreign ambassadors on Thursday, she said it was his attempt to “tactically outwit” the international community.
“The message of the majority of ambassadors was clear. A third of them was present there, which tells about this sort of calmness and coldness towards this kind of policy of blackmails and pressures. They sent clear messages that only sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is recognised. I believe that some, including Dodik, read possible sanctions in between the lines,” added Topic.
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