From the last population census in 2013 to date, Bosnia has around 100,000 fewer inhabitants based only on the natural population movement. When it comes to migration, at least 25,000 people leave the country annually, which is an optimistic estimate.

“Estimates differ but the most optimistic ones say that 20,000 – 25,000 inhabitants leave BiH annually. Bosnia and Herzegovina, at best, lost at least 250,000 inhabitants in the last 10 years,” demographics expert Aleksandar Cavic explained.

Therefore, the demographer pointed out, that data on the natural movement of the population and external migration show that in the last 10 years, BiH has lost at least 350,000 inhabitants, and some estimates go up to half a million fewer inhabitants compared to the 2013 census.

Data from the UN Population Fund show that by 2070, the number of people living in Bosnia could drop to 1.56 million, or to 1.2 million according to pessimistic estimates. Cavic believes that these data are alarming, not only because of the number of the population but also because of the structure of the population that will then be represented.

“As much as the number itself is worrying, the structure of those 1.2 or 1.5 million inhabitants is even more alarming, of which more than 40 percent would be over 65 years old. When it comes to the costs and organization of social and health care in the country, it will not be a sustainable system, and it will become unsustainable long before 2070,” he believes.

When and if the next population census takes place, Cavic noted that it should be the basis for the establishment of the Population Register, which would be regulated in accordance with the constitutional competencies of that area.

“That Population Register should, in order to relieve some form of political abuse, contain two forms. The first would be the usual population census, and the second would refer to the emigration census due to the fact that we have a large population outside the country. Such data would be useful in planning certain activities,” he explained.