The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CB BiH) has significantly adjusted its upward inflation estimates for the first half of 2022, compared to expectations from December, and now they estimate that inflation will be 9.2 percent for that period, Anadolu Agency reports.

Based on official data from October and available market information from the end of November, inflation for the first half of 2022 was estimated at 4.5 percent in December 2021. The new estimate is based on incomplete official data for January 2022, and all available information by mid-March, including oil, gas and food futures values in international markets for deliveries by the end of the semester, as well as country-specific price shocks.
The CB BiH noted that current estimates are made based on very variable data but according to their calculations the most certain inflation rate will amount to 9.2 percent.
They also pointed out that according to the variable data estimates, inflation could reach as much as 12.3 percent in the worst-case scenario.

This scenario would be made possible if inflationary pressures increase further either due to additional disruptions in international markets or bottlenecks in distribution chains or due to domestic price shocks that are not related to price trends in international markets.
The Bank stated that the expected rise in prices in the first half of the year is due to the extreme rise in prices of raw materials, energy, food and oil, especially after the war in Ukraine, but also the low base from the first half of 2021 when consumer prices stagnated. Inflation is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, primarily due to the base effect from 2021 and the assumption of the absence of further intensive growth in food and energy prices.