CBBH revises 2026 real GDP growth forecast upward from 1.9 to 2.3 percent

The CBBH said that, despite the more favorable short-term outlook, economic growth remains moderate, with a gradual acceleration expected to 3.2 percent in 2027 and 3.5 percent in 2028, largely in line with the previous round of medium-term projections.

It added that domestic demand remains one of the key drivers of economic growth, with personal consumption expected to increase by 2.3 percent in 2026. Despite rising nominal wages, the elevated price level continues to constrain the population's purchasing power and limit stronger consumption growth.

Annual inflation for 2026 has been revised upward, from 4.7 to 5.1 percent, although the short-term inflation estimates in the September round had pointed to the possibility of a slowdown in inflation.

Unexpected inflation slowdowns were recorded in June and July, while inflationary pressures intensified significantly as early as September, according to official statistics.

Consequently, the CBBH's latest medium-term projections are closer to those from the spring round than to the flash estimates for the third quarter.

Risks, primarily related to the persistence of core inflation and the possible delayed pass-through of international price pressures, remain pronounced. Inflationary pressures are expected to gradually ease over the medium term, with inflation projected at 2.8 percent in 2027 and 2.3 percent in 2028.

The projected trends remain exposed to external and domestic risks. External risks are primarily related to geopolitical uncertainties, movements in energy and food prices on international markets, and the pace of economic recovery among major trading partners.

Domestic risks concern the persistence of domestic inflationary pressures, uncertainty surrounding the pace of investment activity, as well as structural constraints related to the labor market and productivity.

The CBBH pointed out that a possible delayed pass-through of previous international price shocks to the domestic market represents an additional risk to the inflation projections.