Millions of Americans have already voted, and tens of millions will vote on November 8 in the midterm elections. President Biden and his Democrats face losing their majority in the House of Representatives, and the Senate majority is not entirely secure either. About what this will mean for the USA, how dangerous it is for American democracy, where Donald Trump and his candidates for the Senate and the House of Representatives are in all this, and what will be the foreign policy of the USA after the elections next week in an exclusive interview for N1 CNN White House Correspondent and Campaign Expert Stephen Collinson.
N1: This campaign starts with something that has not been seen for years, years and decades, and that is violence. You wrote about this in your last text titled Attack. The attack on Paul Pelosi is the latest threat to American democracy. This begins with an attack on the family of one of the three most powerful politicians in the United States. How dangerous is this situation for American democracy? I am not talking about the election campaign, but about democracy in general.
COLLINSON: I think what we're seeing is a growing number of people in the United States who are looking at violence as a form, a legitimate form of political expression. That didn't happen for a long time. Of course, America has had a violent past, we have had presidents assassinated. But really since Donald Trump came on the scene in 2016, we've seen more intimidation. We've seen campaigns get nastier. There are a lot of conspiracy theories that are spreading on the Internet, on social networks. And some candidates are still, two years after the last election, running on the assumption that Donald Trump was unfairly ousted from office, which we know is not true. So you have this very toxic political climate in the United States. You can't always attribute everything to the rhetoric of direct cause. But there's no doubt that people like the man who was alleged to have attacked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul Pelosi, have been influenced by and read a lot of these conspiracy theories on the Internet about how the election was stolen, about how the Democrats are trying to take over the country and persecute the Republicans. So all this is happening in this context. In the last week of this campaign, we're seeing American politics again, two years after the Capitol riot, which you know, lest we forget, was an armed mob attack on the confirmation process for Joe Biden, instigated by previous President Donald Trump. A historic break in the tradition of peaceful transfers of power in the United States. All of this is boiling again, and it's a very volatile political environment.
N1: Now let's take a look at this race. Some polls show Democrats losing both Houses, and some polls show them losing Congress but retaining the Senate. Kevin McCarthy is already stating that he is the next Speaker of the House. Based on your knowledge, your experience, and your reporting from the White House, what are the chances and what could happen next week on Tuesday when the election is held?
COLLINSON: It's very likely, first of all, that the Republicans will, as you say, win the House of Representatives. They only need a net gain of five places. Mid-term elections are generally very bad for the presidential party throughout history. The election environment, high inflation, high gas prices, a majority of Americans who believe the country is not headed in the right direction economically, President Joe Biden's low approval rating all lead you to think the House will go GOP, which in a sense it will a return to power for Trumpism because Kevin McCarthy, the man who would be Speaker of the House of Representatives, is a true ally of Donald Trump and many of the people who will be elected if the Republican, Trumpist-style candidate wins. So it would be a big surprise if the Democrats were able to keep the House. The Senate is much more interesting. It's very close. The Senate is currently split 50-50. There are 35 seats up for grabs. The race really comes down to a tie in about four states, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. You could actually flip a coin and try to separate those four races, and it would be very difficult. Like I said, the Senate is split 50-50. The Republicans want to take it. Democrats prefer the Republican-held seat in Pennsylvania, where John Federman, a Democrat, faces Dr. Oz, another Trump candidate. Republicans are seeking a Democratic seat in Nevada. So the fate of these four places is really where everything could play out. What's interesting about Georgia is another one of those states I mentioned where Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock is trying to beat off a challenge from another Trump player, Herschel Walker, who is a former American football star. If none of those candidates gets 50%, we will have a second round of elections in December. So it's possible we won't know the fate of the Senate until at least a month after next week's election. The Senate, as I said, is split 50:50. The Democrats are currently in control because the Vice President has the casting vote under the US Constitution. So they just need to get to 50. Republicans need to get to 51 seats.
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