Dodik confident Karan's presidential victory boosts how own power

After voting was repeated on Sunday at 136 polling stations in BiH's Serb entity where results from the 23 November first round had been annulled, Karan, Dodik's chosen candidate, secured around 2.5% more votes than the united opposition's contender, Branko Blanusa.

According to BiH's Central Election Commission, Karan won about 224,000 votes, compared with around 213,000 for Blanusa.

Although the margin was relatively narrow, initial analyses show Karan improved on his 23 November result. Blanuša lost in 16 of the 17 towns and municipalities where voting was repeated, squandering an opportunity for the opposition to capitalise on a sharp drop in support for Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) compared with the 2022 elections.

In 2022, Dodik won more than 300,000 votes in the race for Republika Srpska president, defeating opposition candidate Jelena Trivic by a margin of more than 25,000 votes.

Then, as now, opposition parties claimed the vote had been rigged.

Zelimir Neskovic, deputy leader of the opposition Serb Democratic Party (SDS), accused the SNSD of widespread voter bribery. "Everything the SNSD did through fraud on 23 November in the presidential election was this time compensated by brutal vote-buying."

Blanusa, the SDS leader, said he would remain in politics despite the defeat, noting that Republika Srpska's president will again be elected in October as part of BiH's general elections. "The next match is in October and it is up to us to draw lessons and prepare as well as possible," he said, adding that the loss was compounded by a lack of unity among opposition parties and the absence of genuine support from some of them.

Dodik believes that securing Karan's victory has also shored up his own power, weakened after BiH's state court last year sentenced him to one year in prison and banned him from holding public office for six years for failing to implement decisions of the international high representative. Since then he has remained only SNSD leader, but from that position has effectively controlled key levers of power through loyal appointees.

"In October we intend to trounce them again," Dodik said as he declared Karan's victory, adding that he would now enter all political battles with "new energy".

He has also voiced confidence following a visit to the United States last week, where he met with some members of Congress and officials in the administration of President Donald Trump, which lifted long-standing sanctions against him and his allies in October.

After returning from Washington, Dodik said he was convinced there would be no further pressure on the current Republika Srpska leadership and reiterated his push for the entity's secession from BiH.

He also said he would not abandon a strategic partnership with Russia and would continue to rely on support from Israel and Hungary, where he has built close ties with Prime Minister Viktor Orban, although that backing could weaken if Hungary's opposition Tisza party wins April parliamentary elections, as current polls suggest.