Dodik shifts approach amid reported pressure from Trump administration

On Saturday, the RS parliament appointed Ana Trisic Babic, Dodik's long-time adviser and close associate, as acting president until elections on 23 November, following a full day of debate. At the same session, lawmakers annulled six laws adopted in December 2024 that had effectively sought to implement RS secession and included threats of force.

Those laws had already been struck down by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and were never enforced, and their formal repeal only confirmed how both futile and dangerous they were. The decision to appoint Trišić Babić was adopted by the same majority controlled by Dodik that had previously passed and then repealed the disputed legislation.

Opposition parties, which boycotted the vote, described the situation as "completely schizophrenic", saying those who once banned the work of state judicial and police institutions in RS and threatened to jail anyone who disobeyed were now nullifying those decisions, claiming that "the situation has changed." Serb Democratic Party (SDS) MP Nedeljko Glamocak said during the debate that this amounted to "nothing less than Dodik's capitulation."

Dodik did not attend the session, but his policy was fiercely defended by BiH Presidency member Zeljka Cvijanovic, who clashed with opposition MPs, telling them they "understand nothing" and "talk nonsense".

Cvijanovic argued that global power relations had shifted and that the most significant change was Donald Trump's return to the White House, which she said could make him "a friend of the Serbs". "Whatever we need to repeal, we will do it for the good of RS," she said, adding on X that this was "an extended hand" to show readiness for a new agreement. "We have the right to believe things will be better because Donald Trump is the US president. We have the opportunity to prove Republika Srpska is a credible partner," she wrote.

Washington responded swiftly. Brendan Hanrahan, a senior official in the State Department's Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, told Reuters that the move was welcomed in Washington as a contribution to BiH's stability. "It will also chart a course for a constructive partnership with the United States based on mutual interests, economic potential and shared prosperity," said Hanrahan, who is directly responsible for BiH and is one of the few Trump administration diplomats to have visited the country.

Since Trump's election, the US has been less engaged in BiH, even though the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the war and established the country's constitutional structure, was a US-led initiative. Under President Biden, the US sought to counter Dodik's secessionist policies through sanctions against many of his associates, but the current State Department under Marco Rubio has limited itself to statements supporting BiH's sovereignty and stability, without further measures.

Dodik spent hundreds of thousands of euros lobbying in Washington for a more favourable stance. Signs that these efforts may be paying off appeared late last week when the US Treasury confirmed that four lower-ranking associates had been removed from its sanctions list.

BiH media speculate this could form part of a broader arrangement under which Dodik agreed to step down as RS president, revoke the disputed laws and demonstrate willingness to cooperate, in exchange for a softer US approach.

For Dodik's coalition partners, however, the most important fact is that he was forced to retreat.

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) called the RS parliament's latest decisions "a historic event marking the capitulation of Milorad Dodik and his secessionist, pro-Russian policy," adding that BiH and its institutions had won another crucial battle, proving that no one is above the state.

Foreign Minister Elmedin Konakovic agreed that US pressure may be behind the reversal, but urged caution. "Even when the enemy retreats, one should remain alert," he said in an interview with Sarajevo's Face TV.