Dodik's career nears end as Republika Srpska eyes successor

With early elections called for 23 November, speculation now centres on his successor.

The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina closed applications on Monday. Despite weeks of threats to block polling stations and claims he would boycott the process, Dodik eventually registered his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) at the last moment. In total, five parties and two independents entered the race.

The main contest is expected between Branko Blanusa, nominated by the Serb Democratic Party (SDS), and the candidate chosen by the SNSD. Blanusa, a respected professor at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering in Banja Luka, is a political novice who will need the backing of the entire opposition to stand a chance.

Among those tipped to carry the SNSD's banner is Sinisa Karan, a former RS interior minister and one of Dodik's most loyal allies. Member of the BiH Presidency Zeljka Cvijanovic, once seen as the strongest contender, is reportedly unwilling to run despite polls suggesting she could win comfortably. She nevertheless promised a fierce campaign and an equally strong victory.

Opposition unity remains fragile. Drasko Stanivukovic, the ambitious mayor of Banja Luka and leader of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), initially opposed participation in the election and resisted fielding his own candidate, only later opening talks on a joint opposition strategy.

"We are not the SNSD. We are not village tricksters and chicken thieves who say one thing today and another tomorrow," Stanivukovic said.

PDP parliamentary leader Igor Crnadak insists 90 per cent of party members will support the SDS candidate, but rivals distrust Stanivukovic. Some suspect he hopes the opposition loses in November so that he can emerge as the leading challenger in the 2026 regular elections, potentially with the backing of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

Other opposition figures have been scathing. Nebojsa Vukanovic of the Justice and Order List accused Stanivukovic of betraying his supporters and ruling in the same way as Dodik: "He trampled on everything he promised and now wants power at any price."

Jelena Trivic, leader of the People's Front and Dodik’s opponent in 2022, was even harsher: "Stanivukovic is the biggest political fraud ever seen. We don't need another Dodik after Dodik."

This year's election could hinge on Bosniak and Croat voters. Though their vice-presidential posts are not up for election, their turnout may still prove decisive. In 2022, 37,000 Bosniaks and nearly 4,000 Croats cast ballots, numbers sufficient to swing the result.

As for Dodik himself, he will be sidelined. A six-year court ban on holding office means he will miss this election and at least two more. Should he return in 2031, he would be 72 years old.