Zijad Becirovic, Director of the International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies, said he does not believe in a possibility of a war in Ukraine but that a “limited conflict” cannot be ruled out. He also spoke about a possibility of conflicts emerging in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Speaking in N1's Pressing show, Becirovic said that he does not think a factual war is possible in Ukraine, noting that Russia is controlling one third of that country and what might happen is some sort of encircling of that area. “If it happens, the conflict will be limited.” he added.

Asked if the tensions could spill over onto the Balkans, Becirovic replied by saying that “we know what had happened 30 years ago” but that majority now does not support conflicts.

Explaining the situation in and around Ukraine, he said that Moscow is trying to regain its influence on the territory it calls ‘old Russia’, which includes Kiev, which used to be the capital of Russia. Russia's goal, he stressed, is to strengthen its position in the states of former Soviet Union, which got out of control and have become or are aspiring to become NATO member states.

The Balkans, according to Becirovic, is not in Russia's sphere of interest.

“That is former Soviet Union and its goal is to regain its influence where possible, but in any case there is a gathering of a group that wishes to impose their rules of games,” he noted.

However, he warned about another attempts of causing a conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina through riots in its Federation entity.

“The Federation's Prime Minister comes from Gradacac and they discovered a symbol that needs to be destroyed and that's the Gradascevic tower (a fortification from the Ottoman period which is a landmark of the northern town Gradacac). Budapest created that operation. And they chose to destroy the Federation's economic system and to cause riots, because someone needs to be accused of starting the war. We know who was accused for the previous war,” said Becirovic, mentioning the recent mass protest of coal miners, which did not include violence.

According to him, this concept has now been transferred to the northwestern Una-Sana Canton, because this region is inhabited by the Bosniaks and it would show the world that Bosnia is not a sustainable country.

He noted that there was a similar project in North Macedonia, which was directed against the former Prime Minister Zoran Zaev but it failed because he resigned.

Asked about the relations between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, Becirovic said that Dodik is currently in a situation where he is offering himself to anyone just to save himself. “Orban found a figure in him with whom he can agree on anything,” he added.

As for a possibility of Germany and the UK imposing sanctions on Dodik, Becirovic said this is likely to happen.

He remarked that Dodik's fate is such that nobody would wish for it. However, he added, his fate will be decided by others.

“Centres of power are those who decide, and we know who rules this world,” Becirovic stressed.

According to him, deployment of NATO forces in Brcko District, northern BiH, would be a good sign for Bosnian citizens to be more relaxed and live without fear. But, such possibility is being prevented by Brcko Supervisor Michael Scanlan who, according to Becirovic, is drafting “fabricated reports” on the situation in Brcko, which do not respond to reality.

Asked to elaborate on his statement that BiH will fail only if America fail as well, he said that this is because of the US’ sensibility for multiethnic countries and religious diversities.

“Religious freedoms and freedom of speech are America's fundaments. The US is what BiH actually is. If America let BiH's dissolution it would mean it works against itself,” he noted.

Also, Becirovic added, Russia should not be working against Bosnia either, because some of its republics are culturally diverse and they may experience what BiH has.