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Joseph: Advocates of RS secession and a third entity in Washington weakened after elections

author
FENA
05. nov. 2026. 15:32
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Edward Joseph (N1)

The results of the US midterm elections could lead to stronger congressional oversight of the Trump administration's policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly its approach to Milorad Dodik and the Southern Interconnection project, while advocates of abolishing the Dayton Peace Agreement, Republika Srpska's secession and the creation of a third entity are now in a considerably weaker position, Edward P. Joseph, a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, told FENA.

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Joseph believes that the Democrats' victory, which gave them control of both chambers of the US Congress, will increase pressure on the Trump administration over its actions in the Western Balkans, particularly following recent political changes in Serbia.

"To some extent, the election results could lead to changes in Trump's approach to the Balkans. Republicans in Congress had already been highly critical of his approach to Serbia. Following equally dramatic elections in Serbia and the Democrats taking control of Congress, I expect significantly stronger oversight of the administration's policy," Joseph said.

In his view, this will apply in particular to decisions and activities related to the Southern Interconnection project in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the US administration's approach to Milorad Dodik.

"This means stronger oversight of the agreements and political manoeuvring surrounding the Southern Interconnection in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the administration's shocking approach to Milorad Dodik," he said.

Joseph warned that the new political balance in Washington could also have consequences for those advocating radical changes to Bosnia and Herzegovina's constitutional order.

"Those in Washington who advocate abolishing the Dayton Agreement or promote radical ideas such as Republika Srpska's secession or the creation of a third entity are now in an exposed and weakened position," he stressed.

Asked whether he expected the United States to play a more active role in countering destabilising political activities in BiH, particularly those threatening the country's constitutional order, Joseph said he expected Congress to exert pressure.

"I believe Congress will exert pressure to counter destabilising political activities, particularly any attempt by Republika Srpska to secede," he said.

He specifically warned of the possible consequences if Dodik attempted to pursue secessionist moves with the support of certain representatives of the Trump administration.

"If Dodik attempts to do so and any Trump administration official supports such a move, I believe both could face serious consequences. Remember that the new Congress will have the authority to conduct serious investigations," Joseph said.

Speaking about possible congressional oversight of US policy towards BiH, Joseph singled out Democratic Congressman Bill Keating and his report on the Trump administration's actions in the Western Balkans.

He expects Keating to raise questions about the administration's approach to Dodik and activities related to the Southern Interconnection soon, as these issues have already been covered in his report.

Joseph believes that scrutiny of these issues will intensify even before the new Congress takes office in January next year.

"The dramatic results of the US elections will already increase pressure on the administration and oversight of its actions in this regard during the current Congress, whose term runs until January," he said.

Commenting on the results of the US elections, Joseph said the Democrats' victory primarily represented a clear rejection of Donald Trump's political leadership. He particularly highlighted the Democrats' historic victories in states that had been Republican strongholds for decades.

"Trump's presidency will now be subject to significant scrutiny, while corruption is becoming one of the key domestic political issues in the United States," he said.

Commenting on the recent victory of the Student List in Serbia's parliamentary elections, Joseph said the political changes in Belgrade created significant opportunities for a different relationship between Serbia and its neighbouring countries.

He recalled that in an opinion article published in Foreign Policy magazine on October 26, following a visit to Belgrade shortly before the elections, he called on the United States to use the new circumstances to advance regional cooperation.

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