Every November, the United Nations Security Council decides whether to extend the mandate of the European Union's military mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina, EUFOR Althea. Given the heightened tensions between Russia and Western countries due to the war in Ukraine, there have been concerns for several years that Russia might veto the extension of the EUFOR Althea mission, which would mean that these forces would have to withdraw.

Since there are serious concerns that security issues could arise in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nezavisne asked a NATO official what the Alliance would do in the event of a Russian veto.

While the response was measured and diplomatic, it is clear between the lines what NATO would undertake if such a situation arose.

The official stated that if the mandate of the EU military mission is not renewed, NATO would respond to ensure that there is no security vacuum in Bosnia and Herzegovina and to prevent the security situation from deteriorating.

He explained that the Western Balkans, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, is of strategic importance for the Alliance, where NATO has been present for decades, and that peace “cannot be put into question.”

Regarding confidence in the EU military mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the NATO official stated that NATO fully trusts the EU's ability to conduct the mission, and that it has NATO's full support.

He added that the EU is fulfilling its mandate in close coordination with NATO, and that both organizations are ready to respond to any security threats and will not allow peace to be jeopardized.

Although this was not explicitly stated, it can be inferred that NATO would fill the gap if EUFOR were to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina.

After the signing of the Dayton Agreement, it was agreed that NATO has the ultimate responsibility for peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina and that all UN Security Council member states agreed that there would be a “NATO presence” in Bosnia and Herzegovina, separate from the question of the EUFOR mission's mandate.

It is believed that NATO could use this legal formulation to replace EUFOR. Notably, a NATO headquarters already exists in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and its work is partly based on an invitation from the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. NATO could claim that it has the highest authority's approval for its presence.

Most officials believe that Russia is unlikely to veto this year as well, for the rational reason that they would prefer to prevent the military mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina from completely falling under NATO's control.