Forum for Cooperation and Research Presents Report on Undermining the Constitutional Order of BiH: Five Scenarios after 12 June

“Although it is difficult in Bosnia and Herzegovina to separate one political crisis from another, the analysis indicates that this current crisis is linked to the adoption of the Law on the Management of Immovable Property at the entity level, whose suspension resulted in the enactment of laws on the non-application of decisions by the Constitutional Court of BiH and the High Representative in the territory of Republika Srpska. Our aim was to explain the chronology of causes and consequences, based strictly on facts, so that external actors might better understand what is happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The time has come to explore modalities for exiting the crisis, in the interest of the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the principles of the rule of law,” state the Forum for Cooperation and Research.

The FSI research team analysed the legal and political implications of the measures adopted by the authorities in Banja Luka. The study reveals how the parallel legal and institutional logic of Republika Srpska led to a systemic collapse in inter-institutional cooperation, undermining the cohesion of the state and citizens’ trust in the rule of law. Special attention is also paid to hate speech and Islamophobia, which formed the basis of the rhetoric accompanying the political and institutional actions of decision-makers.

“The publication warns of possible scenarios for the development of the crisis – from forced reintegration with international support, through permanent paralysis of state institutions, to formal disintegration. The first scenario envisages institutional reintegration through the enforcement of laws: the state implements the rulings of the Court of BiH and arrests those responsible, accompanied by sanctions and conditionality of funding, compelling RS to repeal unconstitutional laws and resume cooperation with state institutions. In view of the existing vertical structures of public finance control, the analysis cautions that such de-escalation would necessitate engagement with certain officeholders in SNSD who have remained outside the crisis narrative, such as the member of the BiH Presidency Željka Cvijanović. Without this, it will be difficult to create the political capacity needed to unblock BiH’s institutions in the current constellation,” the Forum explains.

The second scenario involves the establishment of a parallel legal order. RS would formally create a system that refuses to apply state-level decisions, creating two mutually exclusive systems of authority and effectively blocking the unified rule of law in BiH. In the long term, such a state of affairs would completely jeopardise BiH’s European path and set a precedent for the further dismantling of the state. However, the slowness and gradualism of these measures could produce an effect of “acclimatisation” among the public to a new reality, without the alarm signal that many are expecting.

The third scenario is the controlled maintenance of the crisis through political negotiations. In this case, international actors and moderate forces from RS would agree a temporary moratorium on the disputed legislation, accompanied by political compromises and financial packages, creating the illusion of functioning state bodies without a permanent resolution to the constitutional dispute. However, this entails a series of compromises that the negotiating parties cannot deliver—especially not the political actors in Sarajevo, who must maintain the confidence of their electorate on this path. The fourth scenario is escalation into an international crisis and external intervention. Further militarisation of the RS police and open obstruction of SIPA could lead to active involvement by the OHR and EUFOR in executing arrests, and possibly “forced” measures to restore the Dayton framework. In the absence of such a response, and without solutions emerging from the aforementioned scenarios, a formal constitutional disintegration could occur. This would trigger the fifth scenario, where RS openly adopts a sovereigntist “constitution,” ceases to apply state laws, establishes its own armed and customs structures, and organises a referendum on independence—culminating in the final rupture of the Dayton order and lasting destabilisation.

The Forum for Cooperation and Research brings together leading experts in law and politics, focussing on the protecti on of human rights of the returnee community in Republika Srpska. Over the past five years, it has published numerous analyses on the protection of returnees’ rights, hate crimes based on ethnic or religious intolerance, advocacy for new programme solutions to support return, as well as direct work on issues of discrimination in access to education, public services and political participation of returnee communities in BiH. The presented analysis has been translated into English and distributed to all international and domestic actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina. You can access the report at: https://bit.ly/fsireport2025.