Aleksandar Trifunovic: Bosnia in state of “permanent crisis” maintained by political elites

“In Bosnia, winning elections means securing the spoils. And to enjoy those spoils without interruption, which in one of Europe’s most complex societies is no small thing, you have to keep people in a constant state of crisis so they don’t think about what’s really happening around them. It’s a simple formula,” Trifunovic said.

He argued that the current standoff involving Milorad Dodik, the Republika Srpska entity President, is no different from earlier crises involving him or other Bosnian leaders. While this is not the most severe crisis to date, he noted that the situation was more serious in February when the first court verdict was delivered, prompting fears that events could spiral into conflict.

Trifunovic said Dodik initially tested the waters after Donald Trump’s US election victory, expecting a major policy shift and possible backing from both Russia and the United States. “He thought he could push his agenda to the end and emerge unscathed. While Russia offered verbal support, America’s first response, a tweet from Marco Rubio, called for calming the conflict,” he said, adding that Dodik now understands the world is not viewing his actions as he hoped.

“He is now looking at the situation more rationally, if we can call it that, and is aiming to minimise economic damage while holding onto political power as long as possible,” Trifunovic said.

On the European Commission’s expectation of early elections, he said the statement was no surprise. “The international community has almost no real interest in Bosnia. The EU gave us certain shortcuts to get closer to Europe, knowing we couldn’t get there through regular procedures. We didn’t use those opportunities. Europe is tired of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” he remarked.

Trifunovic also addressed the political dynamic between Dodik and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. While Vucic has often used Dodik as an electoral asset in Serbian campaigns to attract Bosnian Serb voters living in Serbia, Dodik has rarely been able to use Vucic in his own elections in Republika Srpska. “In fact, Vucic had his own favourites, like Jelena Trivic and didn’t congratulate Dodik until all the votes were counted. The image of absolute trust between them is not real,” he said.

According to Trifunovic, both men act with caution toward one another, and any future elections, whether in Republika Srpska or Serbia, will likely be scheduled with these political calculations in mind.