Bosnia without a new census: Population is rapidly decreasing

Population censuses in most countries are conducted every ten years. BiH conducted its first census after the war in 2013, but even those results are not recognized in all parts of the country. BiH Agency for Statistics said that initiatives for a new census exist, but without political will, it will not be implemented.

"In accordance with the conclusion of the Council of Ministers, we have taken technical steps and formed a Working Group, prepared a Draft Law, but key elements such as budget, start date, as well as methodological and organizational frameworks have not yet been defined, which is why the process has not been finalized ," said Lejla Aganovic of the Agency for Statistics of BiH.

If the census is conducted soon, the results could be devastating. The Agency's estimates show that the number of births in 2024 is 1.36% lower than the previous year, while the number of deaths has increased by 3.37%. The fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina is characterized by poor population dynamics is also confirmed by experts.

"What we can certainly say is that BiH has returned to the 1960s in its demographic development. Back then, we had a very young population, and today, unfortunately, we have a lot more old people. All of this is based on problems from the past - the devastation of villages, emigration from rural areas to cities, and then from cities, due to economic and social problems and the consequences of the war - abroad ," said Drasko Marinković, a professor at the University of Banja Luka.

The Union for Sustainable Return and Integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been warning about the increasing exodus of people, especially from eastern and western Herzegovina region in he country's south, for more than a decade. However, state institutions still do not have response to that.

"We know for sure that at this moment more than 600,000 citizens have left BiH. One of the problems is that these people do not have to register in their local communities - we constantly warn about this. However, the countries they go to are regulated and each of their registrations allows them to exercise their rights - whether it is work, education or employment," said Mirhunisa Zukic of the Union for Sustainable Return and Integration of BiH.

The worrying figures were also highlighted during a session of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska, one of two Bosnia's semi-autonomous region. PDP MP Tanja Vukomanovic presented specific data on the poor demographic picture, but the response of the RS Prime Minister caused additional outrage.

"I am sorry that it turned out that I was the victim, but the message is much worse that the answer of the first man of the Government of RS to the catastrophic demographic picture is: 'Have children'. This is wrong from many angles. You have couples who cannot have children, you have people who do not have the conditions, and you have those who simply do not want to ," Vukomanovic said.

In addition to the lack of political will, the lack of political knowledge is also worrying. Without demographic recovery, BiH's pension, health, and even fiscal systems are at risk.