Intervention would follow if Milorad Dodik start declaring independence, said Miro Kovac, Croatia's former foreign minister, commenting on the latest secession threats by the President of Bosnia's Republika Srpska entity. This won't happen because there are mechanisms that would sanction it, according to Kovac.

Speaking in N1's Pressing show, Kovac said that this was not the first time Dodik was threatening. He recalled that Dodik is in a trial for the disrespect of the Constitution and law, but that “the world will not interfere if the political independence of BiH and this political order are respected.”

Asked if it will be too late if Dodik makes the final step, Kovac said this was neither the first nor the last time Dodik is saying such things but that he is “facing a wall and has nowhere to go.”

“Even (Serbian President Aleksandar) Vucic doesn't want him to do it,” Kovac said.

What would happen in a potential secession scenario?

Kovac deems that this would most likely trigger the reaction of High Representative Christian Schmidt and EU military deployment in Bosnia and Herzegovina, EUFOR Althea mission.

“It means that there are mechanisms for the EU to act and prevent such a thing in a way to preserve the existence of BiH. This is, of course, an obligation for Croatia as a neighbouring country, but also its vital national interest,” said Kovac.

Asked if the fact that new EUFOR commander is a Hungarian major general could pose a problem for a potential engagement of the mission, considering Dodik's good relations with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Kovac replied that this was an international mission and that even the new commander himself said recently that EUFOR would act if necessary.

“As for Orban, he can get along with Dodik and Vucic,” said former Croatian minister, noting that despite objecting assistance for Ukraine he agreed with the opening of the accession talks between the EU and Ukraine.

“What I'm trying to say is that he is flexible and he must secure any kind of credibility on European stage. Hungary will not be able to save Dodik, nor is this in Orban's interest,” he underlined.

As for Russia's support, he said that the stances of Russia and Republika Srpska might be matching but that Russia is not likely to recognise Republika Srspka.
Republika Srpska's independence would be a burden for Serbia's Vucic, according to Kovac, and he would have to distance from that.

There are two way to treat Dodik's secession threats, he said.

“The first one is to sanction it immediately, which was not done and he was allowed to keep threatening,” Kovac said. “The second option is what the Americans did yesterday, it is a very clear message: This will happen if you dare to do that, but ignore. That's a clear message that intervention will happen if he does it.”