Faruk Hadzic, an economic expert, presented an analysis of current economic trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina, revealing rather concerning forecasts.

According to Hadzic, Bosnia's foreign trade in the first three months of this year has significantly deteriorated, indicating potentially serious economic consequences for the year if these trends continue.

Using data from the State Agency for Statistics as a reference, Hadzic highlighted that exports in the first quarter of this year were down by 550 million KM compared to the same period last year, while imports increased by 265 million KM. This means that the trade deficit has increased by about 815 million KM.

“This is a significant negative impact in just three months. If these negative trends continue throughout the year, we can expect a yearly export decline of no less than 1.5 billion BAM, which will have serious consequences for the level of economic activity,” he said.

Hadzic mentioned the reasons behind this situation, stating that it is primarily due to a drop in exports to the European Union markets, especially Germany, Italy, Croatia, and even Slovenia. This suggests that the economic crisis has started to impact the European Union, thereby affecting Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“These figures are crucial for all segments of society, considering that exports are a significant component in calculating the gross domestic product (GDP). The drop in exports will lead to a proportional decrease in GDP, which will, in turn, impact pensioners because their pensions are partly indexed to GDP growth. If economic growth is low, which it likely will be, pension adjustments will also be quite modest, probably significantly lower than this year. Reforming the tax system could be a measure that stimulates worker productivity and increases consumption, potentially offsetting the export decline and helping the economy,” the expert concluded.