IMF projects slower economic growth and rising inflation for Bosnia

The IMF projects that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will rebound slightly to 2.6 percent in 2027, with inflation easing to 3.3 percent. Meanwhile, the current account deficit is anticipated to widen significantly to 4.9 percent of GDP this year, up from 3.1 percent in 2025, before settling at 4.8 percent in 2027. Unemployment in Bosnia is projected to remain unchanged at 12.2 percent over the next two years.

Regionally, several neighboring economies are forecast to outstrip Bosnia and Herzegovina’s growth rate in 2026. Projections indicate economic expansion of 3.5 percent for both Albania and North Macedonia, 3.3 percent for Serbia, and three percent for Montenegro, while Croatia is expected to grow by 2.2 percent.

On a global scale, the IMF forecasts economic growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. Global inflation is set to rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent this year, driven largely by elevated energy and food prices, before falling back to 4.1 percent in 2027.

The IMF warned that the global economy faces heightened risks from ongoing conflict in the Middle East—particularly potential disruptions around the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route—alongside rising public debt and higher borrowing costs. While rapid investments in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure continue to support global activity, IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro cautioned that countries must rebuild fiscal buffers and enhance productive capacity to withstand future economic shocks.