Mujanović: Lifting Sanctions on Dodik Would Be a Reversal of Decades of U.S. Policy

Mujanovic described such a move as “Dodik’s crowning achievement after a decade of lobbying in the U.S.” and “a categorical reversal of Obama, Trump I, and Biden-era policies.”

According to Mujanovic, a deal has already been made between Dodik and Washington.

He noted that Dodik’s regime has accepted his removal from office by the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, agreed to hold special elections for his replacement as president of the Republika Srpska entity, and withdrawn a number of secessionist resolutions that had already been struck down by state institutions.

“In exchange, the U.S. has been lifting sanctions against Dodik’s closest associates, and it appears increasingly likely that he will have the measures against him lifted shortly as well,” Mujanovic posted on X.

The analyst argued that Washington will likely frame the development as a “win” and proof of an “effective transactional approach” in dealing with “Putin’s closest ally outside Lukashenko.”

However, he warned that this reasoning is deeply flawed.

“The Biden administration already tried ‘dealing’ with Dodik’s closest ally in Bosnia, Dragan Covic, and with his chief patron, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Not only did that policy fail, it saw all three engage in some of their most radical actions in decades. Appeasement always invites radicalism,” he wrote.

Mujanovic added that Dodik is once again offering the United States only “an IOU in exchange for material benefits.”

“While the U.S. is making major concessions by lifting punishing sanctions, Dodik is providing largely symbolic moves he can reverse at any moment. The U.S. could reimpose sanctions, but that could take months and would be humiliating for the American side,” he said.

The analyst stressed that the decision would contradict one of the core pillars of U.S. foreign policy - peacebuilding.

“Dodik is clearly the most malign and extremist element in the whole of the Western Balkans. He and his allies have fomented the most serious political and security crises in the region since the 1990s,” Mujanovic warned.

“U.S. sanctions have been one of the few effective mechanisms for curbing his behavior, which is precisely why he has lobbied so hard to have them lifted. Removing them simply makes no political sense, especially from the standpoint of U.S. security interests in Europe.”

Mujanovic concluded by expressing hope that his interpretation is wrong:

“My hope is that I am misreading the tea leaves and that the administration will conclude lifting sanctions against Dodik would be a mistake. We will soon find out.”