Dayton's 30-year legacy: Serwer warns of political stagnation and urges constitutional overhaul

In an interview with FENA, Serwer states that the only path toward a more stable and functional state is a comprehensive yet moderate constitutional reform, alongside a more determined stance from the international community against those who violate the constitutional order. He emphasizes that the agreement guaranteed the warring parties continued political power, which has led to an imbalance of competencies: the entities are too strong, and the state is too weak. This deficiency, according to him, hinders BiH's ability to negotiate and implement the European Union's acquis communautaire.

Reflecting on the role of international forces, Serwer recalls that the NATO-led SFOR missions were crucial in separating the warring factions. However, he believes a discontinuity occurred in 2004 with the transition of responsibility to EUFOR, which he suggests has become irrelevant due to the small number of troops deployed. Serwer warns that EUFOR should concentrate all its forces in Brcko to prevent any potential secession of the Republika Srpska (RS) entity.

He views the year 2006 and the defeat of the April Package as a turning point after which international pressure weakened, and ethnonationalism strengthened and came to dominate the political scene.

Regarding NATO integration, Serwer assesses that BiH's ambitions for full membership are realistically limited by internal political resistance, noting that those who believed the RS would want BiH to join NATO were mistaken. He reiterates that international forces must be reinforced, proposing to double the number of troops and station nearly all of them in Brčko. This, he says, would send a clear message to both the RS and the Federation that BiH remains a unified state governed by the Dayton Agreement until it is amended.

Commenting on the increasingly frequent challenges to the decisions of the BiH Constitutional Court and the authority of state institutions coming from the RS, Serwer stresses that verbal challenges are permissible in a democratic society, but the adoption of unconstitutional measures in the entity assembly is unacceptable. He argues that those who vote for such measures should be sanctioned by both the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).

On the US role, Serwer believes Washington appears less engaged today than it was in the 1990s, partly due to global challenges.

"Americans have their hands full elsewhere. Besides sanctioning those who vote for unconstitutional measures, they won't do much more. Bosnians and Herzegovinians must take the lead," Serwer concluded.

In the context of rising geopolitical tensions and Russian influence in the region, Serwer highlights that constitutional reform is the most important recommendation for NATO and the EU, as it would ensure long-term stability and reduce the space for radicalization and political manipulation.