The reporting period was characterized by the progress of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) towards integration into the European Union (EU), but also by unprecedented attacks against the General Framework Agreement for Peace (GFAP), High Representative Christian Schmidt said in his regular report to the UN Security Council, which was seen by N1. The report will be presented on Tuesday.

“On 21-22 March 2024, the European Council decided to open accession negotiations with BiH. The Council invited the European Commission to prepare the negotiating framework, which is to be adopted once all relevant steps from the Commission’s recommendation of 12 October 2022 are completed. The European Council decision is a watershed moment in terms of the opportunities that are open for BiH. By building on the achievements in the implementation of the GFAP over the last three decades, it demonstrates that the implementation of the GFAP and EU integration reinforce each other and underscores the need for continued coordination of the two processes,” Schmidt wrote.

He noted that the European Council decision was a welcome contribution to efforts to safeguard the country’s stability in light of geopolitical and internal challenges and to provide an incentive for its accelerated progress.

While the European Council decision is a game changer in terms of the opportunities that open up for BiH it is insufficient to counter the threats to BiH’s stability.

Secessionist threats

“The authorities of BiH’s entity of Republika Srpska (RS) led by RS President and SNSD leader Milorad Dodik actively subvert the State of BiH, its competences and institutions, and thus the GFAP,” Schmidt warned.

“Their threat to paralyze State authorities by blocking their work and decision-making is a threat to the functionality of the State and its ability to carry out its responsibilities. Their threat to proceed with unilaterally withdrawing the RS from the constitutional, legal, and institutional framework of the State – including from the BiH Armed Forces and the State tax, judicial, and electoral systems – is a threat of establishing a parallel RS framework. All political stakeholders have to express their unconditional commitment to the GFAP, and to BiH and its statehood and territorial integrity. This commitment is partially missing,” he added.

The High Representative recalled that RS ruling coalition parties continued to organize protests on the Inter-Entity Boundary Line (IEBL) between the two entities called “The Border Exists”. Besides promoting the idea of secessionism, he said, these IEBL rallies create a divisive environment prone to security incidents.

“Unprecedented pressure on judicial institutions continued. Besides promoting the abolishment of the BiH Court and the BiH Prosecutor’s Office, the RS ruling coalition undermines the BiH Constitutional Court as the guardian of the constitutional and legal order of BiH. Challenges to the institution and mandate of the High Representative also continued unabated. These involve inflammatory rhetoric but also actions to undermine the respect for the international ad hoc institution of the High Representative and thereby its ability to implement the mandate of the GFAP. Representatives of the RS ruling coalition blatantly abuse the institutions of BiH in furthering this goal,” the German diplomat wrote.

He emphasized that these actions by the RS ruling coalition parties go hand in hand with their legislative initiatives in the RS itself, limiting the civic space in order to silence, discourage, threaten, and eventually punish dissenting political opinions.

“If pursued, these actions could lead to a de facto if not a de jure dissolution of the State of BiH, which is what RS President Milorad Dodik continuously advocates. This would be a scenario with grave consequences,” Schmidt warned

He concluded that the overall political environment is fertile ground for threats to transitional justice.

“There is backsliding in public efforts to deal with the past and an alarming level of ethno-nationalistic historical revisionism, denial of genocide and other war crimes as well as glorification of war criminals. These trends were closely linked to the general backsliding of democracy, respect for human rights, and the rule of law, which increase mistrust and polarization within society. A harbinger of this is the steady decline in inter-community relations in Srebrenica over the past two years,” the High Representative’s report says.

Election integrity

“Delaying efforts to minimize electoral corruption, fraud, and irregularities further would render the election integrity measures inapplicable to the local elections in October 2024, with serious consequences for democracy, political stability, and the EU future of the country. With that in mind, I enacted on 26 March 2024 the Decision Enacting the Law on Amendments to the Election Law of BiH. My Decision was taken in response to the persistent failure of the relevant authorities in BiH to reach an agreement to amend the BiH Election Law in accordance with international norms and standards. I kept open the option for the BiH Parliamentary Assembly to take its own decision for as long as possible without hindering the conduct of the local elections in October 2024,” Schmidt said.

The number of those who have left BiH in the period 2013-2023 is estimated at 600,000, he noted.

The High Representative pointed out that the country’s population is expected to decrease by approximately 45,000 people every year, of which over 20,000 are young, skilled people who emigrate abroad on account of political instability, poor standards of living and corruption.
Additionally, he added, the fertility rate is very low and, with the estimate of 1.35 %, the national demographic decrease can be up to 20,000 persons per year.

Schmidt sent the Report on the State of Security in Bosnia and Herzegovina to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who forwarded the report to the Security Council Chair, who sent it to the heads of permanent missions of all member countries of the UN Security Council. This UN body is in session on Wednesday.