Illegal EU border crossings down significantly

Preliminary data released recently by the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) show that there were approximately 61,000 detected illegal crossings of the European Union's external borders between January and July 2026, a 37% decrease year-on-year.

The decline was recorded on almost all major migration routes.

There were 20,232 illegal crossings along the Eastern Mediterranean route, compared with 28,068 in the January-July 2025 period, representing a 28% decrease. On the Central Mediterranean route, which directly affects Italy, the number was more than halved, with 16,454 illegal crossings compared with 36,656 in 2025, a decline of 55%.

The only route to record an increase was the Western Mediterranean route, where crossings rose by 50%, mainly due to departures from Algeria.

The Western African route to the Canary Islands recorded the steepest decline, down 78%, largely as a result of preventive measures by Mauritania, Senegal and Gambia in cooperation with Spain and the EU.

Fewer asylum applications

The downward trend is also reflected in asylum figures. In May 2026, 42,525 third-country nationals lodged their first application for international protection in an EU member state, a 22% decrease from May 2025, when 54,765 applications were recorded, and a 2% decline from April 2026.

In January, the year-on-year decline stood at 23%, with 51,160 first-time applications compared with 66,745 in January 2025.

The largest numbers of first-time applicants in March came from Venezuela, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Syria, while Italy received the most applications, followed by Spain, France and Germany. Together, the four countries received around 80% of all first-time applications in the EU.

At the same time, 205,945 first-instance asylum decisions were issued in the first quarter of 2026, four percent more than in the same period a year earlier, with 41% of those decisions being positive.

Ceuta a statistical anomaly

Legal migration to the EU remains a significantly larger phenomenon than illegal crossings, although the latest full-year Eurostat data still date from 2024. At the end of 2024, there were 26.5 million valid residence permits held by third-country nationals in the EU. Family reunification accounted for one-third (32.6%) of all permits issued, while the largest groups of permit holders were nationals of Morocco (2.2 million), Turkey (2 million) and Ukraine (1.6 million).

That same year, more than 4.6 million third-country nationals obtained the right to reside and work in the EU through the single-permit procedure.

Against this backdrop, the wave of arrivals in Ceuta, an autonomous Spanish city on the North African coast, in late July appears to be a statistical anomaly rather than part of a broader trend.

EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner said that more than 70,000 people crossed the border into Ceuta within a few hours and that 75 people died, adding that criminal networks had exploited disinformation on social media. According to Spain, however, the situation was under control and the Schengen area had not been affected.

Brunner later said the EU had "passed the Ceuta test", calling on member states to accelerate implementation of the bloc's new migration rules. He also reminded Italy, which temporarily suspended Schengen rules concerning Spain during that period, that the Schengen Borders Code allows such measures only in exceptional and temporary circumstances and that the European Commission will assess whether the measure was necessary and proportionate.

Disproportionate response?

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used the Ceuta crisis to announce a new migration plan, whose first point focuses on continuing to prevent irregular migration through stronger cooperation with partner countries.

This refers to so-called "migration diplomacy", which goes beyond the mere management of migration by using development aid, visa policy and trade as leverage. The EU is currently negotiating a comprehensive strategic partnership with Morocco, in which migration is one of the key elements.

Critics, however, warn that the political response to Ceuta is disproportionate to the actual scale of the events.

Chiara Catelli of the Platform for International Cooperation on Undocumented Migrants described Italy's reintroduction of border controls with Spain as political posturing and a clever manipulation of EU law intended to show that the government was tough on migration, while in practice creating problems mainly for tourists and passengers travelling from Spain to Italy.

The result is a growing disconnect between official statistics and political discourse that has characterised the EU's migration debate in 2026: while Frontex and Eurostat are recording the lowest levels of irregular arrivals and asylum applications in several years, individual incidents such as Ceuta continue to fuel national debates over suspending Schengen rules and erecting physical barriers at borders that, according to official data, are experiencing decreasing pressure.