International experts urge PIC to block Dodik’s referendum, warn of genocide risk in Bosnia

In the letter, addressed to the OHR in Sarajevo, the signatories voiced alarm over Dodik’s defiance of the rule of law following his recent conviction and removal from office. The appeal describes his plan to hold a referendum on October 25 in Republika Srpska as a “brazen rejection of the rule of law” that could destabilise the state and the wider region.

“Mr. Dodik is undermining the rule of law by challenging his recent conviction and removal from office by holding a referendum,” the letter states. “Following Dodik’s conviction, the Assembly of Republika Srpska further escalated the constitutional crisis by passing laws that rejected the authority of the state judicial and prosecutorial institutions within the entity.”

The signatories emphasise that Dodik’s sentence included a one-year prison term and a six-year ban from the presidency. He paid a fine of approximately €18,660 in lieu of serving prison time, as permitted under Bosnia’s Criminal Code. However, following the Central Election Commission’s termination of his mandate, Dodik scheduled a referendum asking voters: “Do you accept the decisions of the unelected foreigner Christian Schmidt and the rulings of the unconstitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina issued against the President of Republika Srpska, as well as the decision of the Central Election Commission to strip Milorad Dodik of his mandate?”

The authors argue that such a referendum undermines constitutional democracy, opens the door to authoritarianism, and sets a dangerous precedent.

They also cite the actions of the RS Assembly, which, immediately after Dodik’s first-instance conviction on February 26, adopted laws rejecting all decisions of the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council, the Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, the Court of BiH, and the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA). This, they say, was an “intentionally provocative action aimed at further undermining the constitutional order” and part of a series of efforts to prepare the ground for a referendum on secession.

The letter highlights Russia’s backing for Dodik. After his second-instance verdict on August 1, which confirmed his conviction and led to his removal from office, the Russian Ambassador in Bosnia issued a statement condemning the ruling and making what the authors describe as a thinly veiled threat. On September 9, Dodik met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow. Lavrov condemned the verdict, criticised Western interference, and reiterated President Vladimir Putin’s support for Dodik and Republika Srpska, pledging continued diplomatic and economic cooperation.

“We are concerned that Mr. Dodik’s current actions would generate incidents that could lead to Putin opening another front in the Balkans,” the appeal warns.

The letter also notes support from Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic, who after meeting Dodik in Belgrade, declared that Republika Srpska will “always have Serbia behind them and will be able to count on its support and assistance.”

In their urgent appeal, the signatories call on the PIC to take immediate action:

“The referendum on October 25 should be prevented, and the early elections called by the Central Election Committee for November 23 to elect a new President in Republika Srpska should be supported. All necessary action should be taken to prevent further deterioration of the political situation, including the strategic deployment of EUFOR troops.”