Norwegian historian on how October 7 changed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

On the occasion of the Bosnian translation of his latest book, Road to October 7: A Brief History of Palestinian Islamism, Skare spoke to N1 about the deeper roots of October 7, the internal dynamics of Hamas, and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Asked whether October 7 should be seen as the culmination of cyclical failures in diplomacy and armed struggle, or as a radical break that has permanently transformed the conflict, Skare replied:

“In a sense, the answer is yes to both. October 7 happened after seventeen years of an Israeli-Egyptian blockade on Gaza. Half of the population was unemployed, 70 percent of its youth population was so. The systematic de-development of Gaza had made it completely aid dependent. At the same time, Hamas was no closer to lifting the blockade or liberating Palestine, and nothing suggested that reconciliation with Fatah was imminent.”

He explained that these conditions created a perfect storm where frustration and despair accumulated over years, leaving both Hamas and the population with few viable political or social options.

Skare also highlighted that repeated escalations in Gaza from 2008 to 2020 had done little to change Israel’s perception that the enclave was contained indefinitely.

“The unwillingness to engage with Hamas politically, the inability to propose a lasting solution, and the failure of moderates in Hamas to achieve any victories meant that the hardliners won the internal debate — that only extreme violence could break the impasse", he added, emphasizing that this internal dynamic helped set the stage for the events of October 7.

Yet, he noted, the day also marked a historical rupture:

“Gaza no longer exists. The Israelis will presumably annex the West Bank. At the same time, Israel has never been more isolated internationally than now, with France, the UK, Canada, and Australia recognizing the State of Palestine. There are decades when nothing happens, and there are days when decades happen.”

Skare reminded that this juxtaposition of destruction and international isolation illustrates how dramatically the regional and global context has shifted since the blockade began.

Rethinking Islamism

Skare’s book challenges the monolithic portrayal of Islamism in Western discourse. He defined it analytically as the belief that religion should guide not only private life but also politics and social organization.

“Islamism is not a singular phenomenon. It is heterogeneous. While all Islamist actors advocate for a return to an idealized past, they disagree on what that means, what methods are acceptable, and what priorities to pursue", he explained, stressing that understanding this diversity is key to analyzing Palestinian political dynamics.

Moderates and hardliners inside Hamas

Central to Skare’s analysis is the ongoing tension between moderates and hardliners within Hamas.

“There is not one Hamas, but many. Hardliners favor maximalist territorial ambitions and extreme violence, while moderates open up to political work and even a two-state solution as the most feasible path", he said, noting that these internal divisions have historically determined Hamas’s strategies and responses.

He recalled that Ismail Abu Shanab, a moderate figure within Hamas, was assassinated in 2003, while Mahmoud al-Zahar, once open to peace, became one of Hamas’s staunchest hardliners after surviving an Israeli assassination attempt that killed his son and maimed his daughter. Skare emphasized that the failure of moderates led to October 7, while the hardliners’ decision to implement the attack caused the complete destruction of Gaza and the genocide against its people, clarifying that Hamas is responsible for its own actions, Israel for its own, and that October 7 was a major miscalculation.

The shifting narrative power

Discussing Israel’s long dominance in shaping international narratives, Skare explained:

"Public opinion is changing. In the US, not only young Democrats but also young Republicans are more critical of Israel. Among Jewish Americans, we also see shifts. In Europe, recognition of Palestine by the UK and France would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Israel is increasingly isolated", he added, highlighting the growing global visibility of the Palestinian struggle.

On whether a two-state solution remains possible, Skare was unequivocal:

“The two-state solution has been dead for over two decades. Geographically, the West Bank is fragmented by settlements, checkpoints, and infrastructure of control. Politically, there is no will in Israel, and only one-fifth of Israelis believe a two-state solution is viable. Continuing to insist on reviving negotiations risks prolonging the same dead-end that has fueled despair and violence", he emphasized, warning that diplomatic insistence without political feasibility risks deepening the cycle of frustration and conflict.

On October 7, 2023, a large-scale Hamas attack on Israel triggered widespread violence, killing and injuring hundreds, and sparked a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The assault marked a significant escalation in the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, leading to military retaliation, massive destruction of infrastructure, displacement of civilians, and drawing renewed international attention to the region’s fragile political and security situation.