Bosnia’s Central Bank reports slight drop in inflation expectations for 2026

While the decrease is small, the CBBH emphasised that it does not signal a drop in overall prices but rather a slowdown in the pace of expected inflationary pressures. In practice, this adjustment helps balance supply and demand and supports more effective economic policy decisions.

At the same time, expectations for disposable income growth have strengthened, reflecting potential increases in real wages. Stable inflation expectations contribute to greater predictability for businesses and investors, creating a more favourable environment for long-term planning, sustainable growth, and economic development.

The central bank highlighted the importance of regularly conducting the Inflation Expectations Survey, which allows policymakers to track shifts in perceptions among market participants and respond in a timely manner to preserve macroeconomic stability.

Results from the September 2025 survey show only minor fluctuations in inflation forecasts. For the current year, 2025, the expected inflation rate stands at 3.5 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from the June survey.

In a context of slower economic growth and persistent global price pressures, inflation expectations remain a key indicator influencing economic behaviour in Bosnia and Herzegovina, from household spending to investment and monetary policy decisions.

These trends also reflect the level of public confidence in future economic conditions and can shape decision-making across both the private and public sectors.

The CBBH conducts the Inflation Expectations Survey quarterly to meet rising interest from domestic and international institutions. Participants include representatives from the financial sector, commercial banks, and insurance companies, providing valuable insight into the outlook and sentiment of economic stakeholders across the country.