Political shift in Budapest threatens multi-billion euro lithium project in Lopare

The planned value chain relied on a partnership between the Swiss concession holder Arcore AG and the German processing firm Rock Tech Lithium, bolstered by crucial Hungarian capital and the political protection guaranteed by Viktor Orban. Unlike Orban, who was the closest European ally to the leadership in the RS, the new Prime Minister Peter Magyar leads a pro-European reformist administration. His ascension to power creates three critical obstacles: the potential withdrawal of funding through Hungarian state funds, the loss of a diplomatic shield within European institutions, and a shift in focus away from Orbán’s regional alliances.

At the beginning of 2026, the authorities in Republika Srpska amended the legal framework to transfer decision-making power over geological research from the local to the entity level. While intended to accelerate exploitation, the move triggered fierce resistance from the local community in Lopare. Citizens and environmental organizations have spent months warning of the dangers to groundwater and the destruction of nature, drawing parallels with the Rio Tinto case in Serbia.

Instead of the year marking the start of commercial exploitation, 2026 may become a year of final re-evaluation. Without Hungarian financial backing and facing a new political climate in Budapest, the fate of the lithium on Majevica, valued at billions of euros, now remains highly uncertain.