Ukrainian security expert warns Bosnia could become new front in Russia’s hybrid war

In an analysis published by Ukraine’s state news agency Ukrinform, Zentsov argues that political tensions in Bosnia should be viewed in the broader context of Russia’s confrontation with the West.

“While Western attention is focused on Russia’s war against Ukraine, another potential hotspot of instability is emerging in the Balkans,” Zentsov wrote, arguing that developments in Bosnia increasingly have implications for wider European security.

A “second front” of destabilisation

Zentsov describes Russia’s alleged strategy as one of gradual destabilisation rather than an immediate attempt to trigger conflict.

He points to Milorad Dodik, leader of the SNSD and former president of Bosnia’s Serb-majority Republika Srpska entity, citing his longstanding relationship with Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Dodik lost the presidency in 2025 after being barred from political office. Sinisa Karan, a close political ally from the SNSD, subsequently won the election to succeed him.

“For the Kremlin, any escalation in the Balkans means diverting Europe and NATO’s attention and resources away from the Russian-Ukrainian war,” Zentsov wrote.

He argues that Moscow favours a process of gradually weakening Bosnia’s state institutions, which he describes as “salami secession”, rather than an immediate declaration of Republika Srpska’s independence.

The analysis also makes more serious allegations about Russian intelligence activity and radical networks in the region.

Why he singles out Brcko

Zentsov identifies the strategically located Brcko District as a particularly sensitive point in any potential escalation.

Brcko is a self-governing district under the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Its territory belongs to both entities under the 1999 Final Award, but neither entity exercises governing authority within the District.

Zentsov raises a hypothetical scenario in which Serb forces could attempt to establish a corridor through Brcko in a military escalation.

“The history of Europe has repeatedly demonstrated that Balkan crises rarely remain purely regional,” Zentsov concludes.

He calls for a stronger international security presence, increased sanctions against actors undermining Bosnia’s post-war order and closer European intelligence cooperation to counter Russian influence.